A General Guide to Sports Betting 

Do not risk more money then you can afford to lose (stay comfortable in your betting amounts)

Understand that any sports wager is still a risk. Even though we might have a proven edge it is still a form of gambling with unpredictable variables. The outcomes of sporting events are still out of our control in many facets. Even winning handicappers fail, solid betting systems falter and well based picks miss. You can still lose a sports bet because of changing weather, in game injuries, bad bounces, strange plays, bad calls by referees etc.. Despite solid research and knowledgeable confidence, once a bet is placed it falls into the hands of a group of people and the wills of chance and skill all of which are far less concerned about your money, the spread or final outcome of the game than you are. If losses are forcing you to change your lifestyle, impacting your mood or are negatively affecting your personal or professional life, you should reconsider your bet sizes or even wagering altogether. If losses are making you desperate and depressed, stop until you understand the issues and the methods to correct them. Sports wagering is supposed to be fun or profitable or both. Once you lose the fun or profitability it is time to stop until a more productive outcome can be reached. We can reap the rewards of sports betting only when we gamble responsible and do not risk amounts of money that will negatively impact our lives.

 

Separate your capping bankroll from your life roll (Your betting finances should be different then your life finances)

The base money used for your sports wagering should never overlap with the funds used for everyday life. If you have a $100 to grocery shop for the week this is no time to take that $100 and bet it on our favorite team. Essentials such as food, shelter, transportation, taxes, insurance, important responsibilities, the welfare of your family and friends etc.. must be taken care of first before we even consider betting on sports. When the bills are taken care of and money appropriately managed sports betting can be an enjoyable hobby or investment. Wagering money on sports when it must be used for more crucial life needs is irresponsible and not wise. Your sports betting bankroll should be discretionary income used for specific personal or professional needs and in a worst case at the very least used for entertainment. If you lose your entire betting roll, you should re-evaluate strategy, hold off further gambling and re-establish your bankroll before even considering handicapping again. Life always comes first and we should never let wagering on sports interfere with our ability to meet the requirements of our lives outside the sports book.

 

Turtles can out run and beat horse races and seasons (Older, wiser and more patient usually equals richer): 

There are many sports and bets to chose from during a cappers lifetime. I have seen single days alone with well over a 100 betting choices at some sports books. You must think of sports handicapping as a lifetime endeavor. The casinos do not want to ever go anywhere and gambling is an ancient art that will unlikely disappear anytime soon. With the popularity of sports and the advancements in laws and available sports betting choices we should see the long time tradition of people wagering on sporting outcomes to remain. Sports are year round and happen almost daily. For each sporting event there are often multiple types of wagers offered. There will be lots of games and choices over the course of an average life span so there is no rush when betting on sports. Winning is a long and slow process and not an all out sprint by any measure. During the beginning of any new or unfamiliar sports phase (I.e. start of a season, interleague play, pre-season, exhibition games, Gen X sports, sports you rarely follow (WNBA, MMA etc.) observation and limited wagering is encouraged until a strong sense of how the wagering market works and how to best try to predict results within that specific sport at a positive winning rate. Excitement and speed does not encourage smarter wagering. Slowly crafted thought and lengthy research is what brings home the winners. If you have the urge to make a hasty wager simply do not make that wager. There will always be another bet and another day for you to prove you are the greatest. Betting without regard for time leads to bad habits and losing ways.

 

Stop to smell the sports book cigar smoke (Sports betting is like waiting in line, winning will favor the patient)

When wagers feel off or if the ball is not bouncing your way it is the perfect time to take a break or scale back. If your losing more then winning cutting back the amount of wagers or the size of the wagers or both is advised. Never chase losses and never let pride keep you from dropping down in stakes until you build back up or create another game plan. Acknowledge at all times the mental aspects of sports wagering and not stopping to think why things are going bad only makes things worse. All bets should be placed while calm, relaxed and in the proper mindset. If this is not the case then take time off. Try to figure what is causing your rushed or ill timed betting decisions. Review your losses and regain your perspective on all aspects of professional gambling and sports wagering. Think small before you go big. Using the correct pace can assure success and thwart ruin. Some sports and seasons are better then others for each individual. If you're using good handicapping techniques and disciplined money management it will turn around eventually. It never hurts to take a break or to keep things in moderation when it is becoming unhealthy or you are constantly losing. Giving money to the sports book is unhealthy so get well before going all out. Embrace the small things in sports betting and never let the pressure of time to coerce wagers.

 

Establish what betting units mean to you (How much and how many is what they always want to know at the book)

A commonly accepted betting unit guideline is 1%-2% of your bankroll per unit. You should not be risking more then 5% of your entire sports wagering bankroll and 2% of your life roll per day. Money is our most basic and powerful tool in sports handicapping and something we can not do without. If you run out of money you can not make anymore bets eliminating any management needs or money making opportunities, so to error on the side of caution is encouraged. It is not un-common for even the best of the best handicappers to go on 10 to 15 game losing streaks at various points in there careers. Nobody is immune to losing at sports betting. Find a betting amount that fit's the bankroll criteria and your risk comfort ability levels and then establish that as a betting unit. This number will vary greatly among bettors, change with time and move with wins and loses as well as strengths of picks. Unit sizes greater than 2% dramatically increase your risk of losing your entire bankroll or making mental mistakes. Your are better off leaning toward the side of caution when unit sizing. You can always increase the % size of your units as you win. A 5% unit is very aggressive. Most experienced handicappers would consider 1% a conservative number and 2% aggressive. Unit assignment will also depend on if you are playing a lot of games or only a few. If you bet 12 games at 5% that would be 60% of your bankroll. This would never be advised and very hard to stomach on a daily/weekly basis. If you are long term winner there is no need to push the boundaries of unit size as you will always come out ahead and most likely be saner and richer for it.　

 

Make ceiling and floor adjustments to your bankroll  (As your bankroll and form fluctuate so should your unit amounts)

If you bankroll rises or declines significantly, you should stick with the same bankroll theory described above for daily wagers, but the actual amount of each individual unit should increase or decrease based on total bankroll size and your ability to make winning picks. Your understanding of bankroll and unit sizing should be a constant learning process and money considerations should never remain stagnant. It is important to keep ego and emotions out of your bankroll management and employing pre-determined disciplines that make sense will assist in keeping betting limits and profitable unit management on track. Strength of picks, cash flow and tracked success should play vital roles in unit amounts. Unit amounts must adjust as living objects within the sports betting world as we move up and down the ladder achievement.

 

Betting bigger and badder can be bad for business: (chase the money and the money starts running): 

Increasing your wagers to make up for past losses is a recipe for disaster. Past results should not manipulate current decisions into error. When you are not making winning picks this is a time to scale back your wagering not double your bet sizes. The majority of sports wagers are independent events that will not care how much was lost on a previous bet. Sports betting is a long term game where money management is key. Chasing money that the sports book already has might cause issues in extracting future profits. We need to always bet with a clear head and a proper budget. There will always be another bet to make and a new day with new insight. The more money you make the more you can risk. The less money you make should not translate into higher wagers. We must remain in control of our wager sizes at all times.

 

Too many does not lead to the horn of plenty: (Do not bet too many games. Less is more. Tis a gift to be simple tis a gift to be free): 

Sporting events are isolated events. Each day and with each new game a new perception is attached and new variables are accounted for. With millions and at times billions of dollars on the line the sports betting markets are very efficient. Of course there are positive expected angles and inefficiencies to be found but on the whole much of the information available to the sports enthusiast is already accounted for in the offered sports bets. Sometimes the values and available wagers will seem easy to break or beat but soft bets are rare and talented handicappers with high winning percentages even rarer. There will be days at the sports book where a good investment is just not available. Remember although every game will have a winner does not mean betting every game will make you a winner. It is impossible to pick winners for every game all the time. Use your expertise and what the sports book is willing to give you when narrowing down your bets to the strongest leans. Make bets not based on action but attainable winning strategy. Being selective is partial to winning. If you have more plays then normal possibly risk less over more wagers. If you have less plays vice versa you can risk more on less tickets. The bottom line is you should not be betting every game or sports every day. Sports bets are like women some are sexy and some are not. Although sleeping with as many as possible at times seems reasonable, it is not. The more bets you make the more you have to counter attack the cost of making losing wagers. If the casino is going to charge you to make bets make sure they are precise and not all over the map of the no rhyme or reason nation.　

 

Do not bet on hunches or the backs of Notre Dame: (Impulse and ill planned wagering will cause sickness): 

Sometimes we press bets without ever truly evaluating much of anything. We are itching for action at the sports book and could careless what our advantage is. It might be a feeling. A favorite team. Action or addiction. The wind might be blowing in our favorite direction and because of this we are betting on a fleeting unreasearched detail that may or may not be relevant to winning. To win we must remove these spontaneous bets from our arsenal. A great handicapper has great feel but never bets on feelings. Guessing and blind picking are not keys to success. Each play you make should be well thought out and with purpose and reason. Rely on the tools available to you and use them to your advantage. Sports betting is not based upon the SWAG method (stupid wild ass guesses). Impulsiveness is a big enemy of the sports bettor. Avoid rash decisions at all costs when wagering on sports. Think conservative and use a conservative system and strategy to manage your picks and bets. Each wager should be planned and well researched. Making bets out on limbs is cause for losing limbs.

 

Point spread shopping can lead to champagne popping: (capturing lines can lead to beautiful wines): 

The sports betting world is like the stock market. Prices and odds are constantly changing based upon perception and current information. Point spread movement is common especially on sports where the lines are large, bet heavy or released early. If you consistently purchase sports betting investments at the wrong price or spreads it is going to be very difficult for you to come out ahead in the long run. Predicting line movements is extremely difficult and changes for a variety of reasons. Public opinion, amount wagered, type of sports book and time all play key roles in point spread changes, odds changes and line modifications. If you anticipate successfully and your model or techniques are capturing positive line and odds changes, you will find yourself getting better prices and options for your picks. There are many choices when it comes to deciding where to place your bets. You should be researching all your options and understand the businesses you work with and what they offer in regards to lines and prices for games. You must actively search for and utilize your best betting options. You must also pay close attention to matching your predicted outcome of the event to the movement of the lines. Finding the line at its most optimal point as compared to your original prediction is essential.

 

Be and bet extraordinary not out of the ordinary: (Exotic bets will rarely lead to exotic cars): 

Most good sports bettors are looking for strong individual wagers that provide the most value while exemplifying the least amount of risk. They want to identify flaws in the sports betting market and capitalize on those gaps. Putting together consistent wins on single wagers most often translates into profits. Professional handicappers are rarely distracted with exotic wagers such as teasers and parlays. Half-time wagers, 5th inning bets, over/unders, Run lines, proposition bets, buying points etc. while not the norm with years of practice and solid capping methods can allow for these types of odd straight wagers to be made profitably and with consistency. More often then not sticking to simple bets at favorable odds will allow for the seasoned sports bettor to prosper. The sports books love clueless and random or long shot bets that have little chance of coming through and is essentially how they make a large portion of there profits. The casino loves their clients to make as many uninformed, low-percentage, undisciplined, poor-value, high-risk, sudden-impulse bets as possible. Make sure your bets are clear and concise. Be the well researched and disciplined winner at the sports book and not a sloppy loser. Always make sure you have a strong grasp on the types of wagers you are making. Bet what fits into your style but make sure it is not so eclectic that it does more harm then good. Niche betting is profitable but reserved for the season bettor and not the general public.

 

When your winning bet more and more often: (Candles should walk slow but bonfires should feed everyone): 

Streaks are very real in sports handicapping. I experience them all the time despite variance and randomness. There will be many times where it simply seems you can not lose. You will feel like you run the sports book and the sun is your brother. Other times it is as if you are running like death itself and even your life could not buy you a win. You are the cooler and people fade you at the drop of your betting ticket. If you're consistently picking winners or your system/model is working at a winning pace you should try to maximize your return while you're streaking or in great form. When you find a winning rhythm very slightly increase the size of your bets as your bankroll increases. Still follow strict and safe unit rules but there will be a time if your bankroll grows that you must increase bet sizes. You may also consider adding bets to your daily wagering schema to try and maximize your streak and current clarity for that sport. Once you lose the feel or are not hitting that solid winning percentage bring everything back to normal. Similarly, lower the size and number of your wagers when you're losing or your preferred handicapping style doesn't seem to be working. Your style might not win every year; nobodies does. Remember, the amount of money you win is more important than your winning percentage. We must constantly try to leverage our edges and appropriate bet sizing and adjusting will always be a part of the winning sports betting equation.

 

Don't let television or favorites influence decisions: (the more we see the blinder we are): 

Do not base your betting decisions on the fact that it is your favorite team or that you can watch the game on television. These are two variables that often skew a handicappers understanding. Since there are so many sports packages available, many games can be found online, all games are usually on at the casino and many of the big primetime games are on network TV this will always be a tricky outlier. Watching games and understanding the sports patterns is very important. Inevitably a game that you like for strong handicapping reasons will be on TV and we just must make sure this did not sway our wagering in anyway. An easy way to prevent any interference is to make your betting decisions before checking the television schedule and simply not betting on games involving your favorite teams or players. If you want to add a little excitement to watching your favorite team play or to a game you are planning on watching for sure recreational wagering is a smart path to take. The bet should only be for fun and have no bearing on your bankroll or happiness. Many of the easier bets to be found are not on big public favorites or highly promoted contests. We must make our bets without bias and removing our favorite teams or the notion of betting on a game just because we can watch will drastically increase winning opportunities.

 

Get an outstanding coach and secure reliable data: (You are only as good as your weakest ticket): 

There will always be people that know more then you and work harder then you. There will be sports handicappers with infinite and unlimited resources and track records to assure future success. Seek out those people that are experts on the subject and know and trust the sources of your information. Study diligently and search for continuous improvement in your sports wagering wisdom. Data and data maintenance is another core issue to successful sports handicapping and providing detailed analysis in decision making. Never underestimate your ability to gather accurate data and the expense of interpreting that data. Data will always have a cost but its value is hard to determine. We must take measure to make sure our data is reliable, available and easy to manage over the long run. Spend time and money on improving your sports betting knowledge and skill sets. Getting quality data and advice is paramount. Most of the data in on-line dbs is questionable. Most of the minds discussing sports handicapping are limited in some capacity. Sharing educated data with other modelers/handicappers will help in gaining an advantage. If someone does something for 12-14 hours a day and is good at what they do there is no reason why you should not be trying to learn from them. The wheel does not need to be reinvented. Some of the greatest minds in sports handicapping open their minds to the world and those in need with open arms. The details of sports betting are not a mystery. They are well documented and improved on daily by many very intelligent people. Practice make permanent the more I learn the dumber I fell. Be a sponge and the limits of sports handicapping will never truly be conquered.　

 

Outside influences should not impact the inside of your wallet: (A magic potion is controlling emotion): 

Variables and circumstances unrelated to sports wagering should never impact your decision making when betting. Life will often overlap into our gambling and we should be very careful when the two cross paths. Sports betting will parallel life but this does not mean we intertwine the two. Extraneous influences should not play a role in your wagering and handicapping. In handicapping terms, exogenous variables are things outside of gambling that might effect your success. Relationship issues, work, finances, alcohol, stress, poor planning, and other life abnormalities can cause damage to your concentration, logic and discipline and ultimately your livelihood and bankroll. The happenings of our lives can certainly penetrate our betting capabilities and can cause destruction if not managed properly. If you think outside life concerns are swaying your gambling choices incorrectly or if you have identified life issues unrelated to sports betting that are blocking clarity it is essential to remove yourself from wagering. Until circumstances return to normal breaks are best as there will always be games to bet on and fixing life's problems is a must to keep your winning ways. The sports book makes a living off of ill timed and planned bets. Don't let life ruin your chances of beating the book. Life will always rise above gambling and sports betting. Make sure life is in the right light before trying to shine in the world of sports handicapping.

 

 

Sports handicapping is extremely difficult. Like any other talent it takes time, discipline and skills. The casual weekend bettor and those with minimal understanding of the nuances of sports betting are often losing money. You must wear many masks when sports gambling. You have to be in it for the long haul and determined through hard work and dedication to improve and be the best you can be. It is a long road to the top. There will be many days where we are tested both mentally and physically. To be a winning sports bettor is no easy task. It is not a jaunt into the end zone. There are no walk off home runs. Professional handicapping and sports wagering is a grind and takes a serious amount of talent and gusto. Be safe, buckle up and enjoy the ride. I love sports and I hope you do too.